Donations During the Long Tail of the Disaster

There is an old adage in the world of journalism that says that if a question gets asked in a headline, the answer is going to be "no." (The concept was coined as Betteridge's law of headlines in 2009, but the idea has been around far longer.) In early May, the Chronicle of Philanthropy ran an article titled "They Came Through in a Crisis. Will 2020's New Donors Keep Giving?" Less than a week later, they ran another article, this one called "Charitable Giving Expected to Return to Pre-Pandemic Patterns in 2021." So I guess our question has been answered, and Betteridge was right once again.

But from a practical and useful standpoint, where do nonprofit organizations go from here?

The second article points out "that overall giving in 2020 increased 5.2 percent from 2019, driven mostly by large donations from supporters who had previously given to an organization in 2019 or earlier."  There was also an uptick in small donations. So we saw people with plenty of money to give going back to known organizations, paired with other donors offering up whatever small amounts they could muster. But figuring out how to hold on to these donors is not easy.

One thing that prevents us from comparing the current situation to previous disasters is that the effects of and response to the pandemic are just sort of, well, weird. In the aftermath of an event such as a tornado or hurricane, we know how to respond. As a society, we've done this before. And the effects are somewhat localized. But the pandemic was a national and worldwide catastrophe the likes of which we haven't seen in a hundred years, when the world was a much different place.

To figure out how to rebound, we need to look at both the fallout from an economic disaster, such as the recession that started at the end of 2007, and the response to physical disasters that result in the loss of life.

Nearly a year ago, I compared the effects on nonprofits of the Great Recession vs. the pandemic. That article includes a list of techniques that organizations turned to in the wake of the recession to make up for budget shortfalls. Those techniques are still valid today, though a few may not be too savory for some organizations (such as the introduction of fees for services).

Around the same time, GrantStation's Sid Davis made some predictions about the aftermath of the pandemic, also using the Great Recession as a comparison point. Sid pointed out that between 2008 and 2011, charitable giving declined 11%. But due to the weird nature of and response to the pandemic's economic slump (a large portion of white-collar workers kept their jobs, upgraded unemployment benefits helped those who did lose their jobs keep their heads above water, and people received stimulus checks whether they needed the money or not), unlike during the last recession, we had people donating throughout this one. At the time of his article, Sid pointed to Gallup data showing that 66% said they would maintain their giving and 25% planned to increase their giving in the coming year. Great news! And it appeared to be accurate.

But that data was just for the upcoming year, which takes us to our present moment in time. In the first Chronicle article, author Eden Stiffman points out that organizations must "get into the weeds" a bit and try to fully understand their data. Exactly who is giving to your organization? Did they donate last year? If not, how do you retain them?

Here we can shift to our natural disaster analogy. In the wake of a tornado, let's say I give to a housing reconstruction fund. They put in an amazing effort and rebuild homes for a lot of people. As a donor, I may see that the houses have now been built and therefore feel that my job is done. How does that charitable organization convince me to give again?

It will take a reframing of the narrative. Yes, the houses are built, but that isn't the end of the story. There will be more disasters that will require houses to be rebuilt, and your organization needs to be prepared. And the related effects of the disaster also don't stop as soon as the houses are finished, such as the effects on the local economy or on the community's sense of togetherness.

With the pandemic, a lot of us like to think that there will be some magical point where it's just over. "Oh, the CDC just relaxed its mask guidance. Life must be back to the same as it was in 2019." But the fallout of the pandemic will linger. While unemployment rates have been dropping, it will take a while for them to return to where they were before. It remains to be seen if there will be a housing crisis when landlords or mortgage companies finally come to collect on delayed payments. Will there be lingering health effects for the over 30 million people who were infected?

Your nonprofit will need to fight the assumption that everything is hunky-dory again. You will need to bring hard facts to your audience to convince them that your work isn't done yet. You can also bring in the emotional appeal of stories of people whose lives have not yet returned to normal.

There is an economic concept called the long tail. While some products are massive hits that find their way into nearly everyone's home, there is still a place out on the margins of the market for niche items, the things that take some effort to seek out. Similarly, the pandemic will see a long tail. After our initial waves of deaths and disease, the number of cases continues to decrease, but there is a very good chance the number will never reach anything approaching zero. COVID will likely be with us for the long haul.

While the lives of some people may have returned to something approaching that of the before-times, there are plenty of people out in the margins, on that long tail of the recovery. You need to somehow make your potential donors aware of those individuals, so that the donors know that the work is not over.

A campaign built around a strong emotional appeal will help break through the pandemic fatigue. You can use hard data from the people you've helped already, while also using those stories to show that there are other people out there still waiting for your help. You need to let the donors know that even though the pandemic is waning, your organization's work is still building up steam.